What should happen to Trump if he gets convicted? Forty three percent said he should go to prison, but most were willing to spare him jail time. But the federal statute that governs the setting of trial dates requires judges to account for not only the defendant’s interest but “the best interest of the public” as well. Trump is expected to try to drag out the proceedings for as long as possible, particularly because he would likely be able to shut the prosecution down if reelected. The findings could bolster the position of federal prosecutors, who have been pushing for a trial date as early as this December.

A lower number, but a still-solid majority, said that the trial should take place before the Republican primaries begin early next year (57 percent of all respondents, including 42 percent of Republican respondents). Nearly two-thirds of respondents (62 percent) said that the trial in the pending federal prosecution should take place before the presidential election next November - a figure that includes nearly half of Republican respondents (46 percent). On the question of timing, however, there was more unity. A nearly identical 48 percent of respondents - including 24 percent of Republicans - believe that Trump is guilty in the Manhattan DA’s pending prosecution, which alleges that Trump falsified business records in connection with a payment to the porn star Stormy Daniels in the run-up to the 2016 election in order to keep her quiet about an alleged sexual relationship between the two. The poll had a sample of 1,005 adults age 18 or older, who were interviewed online it has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for all respondents.Īt this point, roughly half of the country believes that Trump committed the crimes alleged against him.įorty-nine percent of respondents - including 25 percent of Republicans - said that they believe Trump is guilty in the pending federal prosecution, which alleges that he willfully retained sensitive government documents after leaving office and obstructed a subsequent federal investigation. The poll was conducted from June 27 to June 28, roughly three weeks after Trump’s federal indictment and nearly three months after Trump was criminally charged by the Manhattan District Attorney’s office. How much do people really understand about the charges facing Trump and do they believe he’s guilty? What kind of punishments do they think fit the crimes if he is convicted? And, of course, what impact could all of this have on Trump’s presidential candidacy?

POLITICO Magazine commissioned this poll because we thought, despite some initial polling shortly after Trump’s federal indictment, that we could dig deeper into the public’s sentiment.

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